Market Normality Indicator
Most market commentary is reactive: it tells you whether the day was good or bad. This indicator answers a more useful question. Where does today's market sit in the full historical distribution? Four gauges, four angles, one calming message: most of what feels alarming is well within the range of normal.
Market Normality Indicator
Data as of May 22, 2026Four ways of asking the same question: where does today's market sit in the historical distribution? Each gauge places the current value on the empirical frequency curve and reports what has typically come next from this zone.
Currently in Calm. This zone covers about 60% of historical days. From here, the next 12 months have averaged +12.4% and were positive 83% of the time.
Currently in Strong. This zone covers about 15% of historical days. From here, the next 12 months have averaged +15.0% and were positive 89% of the time.
Currently in Strong. This zone covers about 20% of historical days. From here, the next 12 months have averaged +16.0% and were positive 91% of the time.
Currently in Up yr. This zone covers about 35% of historical days. From here, the next 12 months have averaged +12.4% and were positive 89% of the time.
9.8% above the 200-day. The market is in its ordinary uptrend state.
Currently in the Strong zone of this metric, which covers about 15% of all historical days. From this zone, the next 12 months have averaged +15.0%, with the market positive 89% of the time. Three years out, the average gain is +47.9%, positive 92% of the time. Most recent comparable level: April 22, 2026.
Computed from 19,206 days of S&P 500 price (since 1950) and 9,228 days of total return data (since 1989). For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
How this works
Each gauge places the current S&P 500 reading on the empirical distribution of every prior trading day in the historical record. Zone widths reflect actual frequency, not equal-width buckets. So the “Calm” zone is wide because most days really are calm; the “Crisis” sliver on the far left is narrow because crisis is rare.
The forward stats per zone are the median or average of what actually came next, sampled from every historical day in that zone. Recovery time is the median calendar days from that zone back to a fresh all-time high. One- and three-year forward returns use the S&P 500 Total Return Index, which includes reinvested dividends.
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The Market Normality Report goes deeper than the live indicator. Twelve brand-designed pages with the historical context, the forward-return data per zone, and the recent analogs. Free, quarterly updates, perfect for your desk or a client meeting.
Why we built this
The single biggest hit to long-term investor returns is panic selling during routine corrections, and the second is selling too early during strong rallies. Both happen because the moment feels unprecedented even when the data says otherwise. The indicator is a small, repeated reminder that most market states have been seen before, and the historical record gives a strong base rate for what tends to follow.
We refresh the snapshot daily after market close. The historical distribution itself is recomputed monthly when fresh price data lands. The math is the same percentile-of-empirical-distribution approach for all four metrics, so the gauges read consistently with each other.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.