The cost of waiting is rarely as cheap as it feels.

The most expensive thing many long horizon investors do is wait. Wait for a better entry. Wait for the next correction. Wait for the picture to clarify.

The intuition says the next entry will be cheaper and the conviction stronger. The math says otherwise, and the reason is asymmetry.

Stocks have compounded at roughly 9 to 10% a year over the long run. That is the expected cost of being out of the market, every year you wait. A six month wait for a better entry costs roughly 4 to 5% in foregone return on average. When the better entry shows up, you might save 5 to 10% on the position. When it does not, and it usually does not, you paid the toll and gained nothing.

The grid below always has examples of positions where we did not wait, and sometimes one where we held off because the thesis genuinely depended on a specific event. The discipline is in knowing the difference. Most waiting is cost dressed up as patience. Real patience is holding through volatility once you are already in.